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KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll: Minn. Marriage Amendment Teeter-Totter May Be Tipping

Posted at: 11/04/2012 10:08 PM
Updated at: 11/05/2012 7:47 AM
By: Michelle Knoll

In Minnesota, the marriage amendment teeter-totter may be tipping, but is it enough to defeat the ballot measure?

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back 8 weeks, SurveyUSA has never shown the Minnesota Marriage Amendment being defeated. Until today. The margin is small, and could just be statistical noise, but at the wire, SurveyUSA has "No" at 48%, "Yes" at 47%, well within the survey's possible sources of error, but significant enough to warrant a mention. In SurveyUSA's two most recent polls, Yes led No by a single point. Now the dress shoe is on the other foot, with No leading Yes by a single point. There is some movement among women, and among Independents, in favor of No.

In the Presidential election to capture Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, Barack Obama appears to have a tailwind at the finish line, defeating Mitt Romney 52% to 41%, Obama's largest lead in 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to July 2012. Obama has polled at or above 50% in every poll since September 2012. Romney has never polled above 43%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 11/01/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 615 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?  

41% Mitt Romney (R)
52% Barack Obama (D)
3% Other
4% Undecided

2   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?  

30% Kurt Bills (R)
60% Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
3% Other
7% Undecided

3   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?  

30% Health Care
28% Job Creation
15% Taxes
3% Gas Prices
2% War On Terrorism
6% Education
12% Something Else
3% Not Sure

4   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"  

47% Yes
48% No
5% Undecided

5   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"  

48% Yes
48% No
5% Undecided

6   Asked of 556 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?  

40% Republican
48% DFL
6% Independence Party
6% Other
1% Undecided

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i   Statement of Methodology
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