We Dodged a Bullet

Posted at: 10/05/2013 8:59 PM
Updated at: 10/05/2013 9:08 PM

We saw some severe weather in southeast Minnesota and north central Iowa Friday night, but it could have been much, much worse.

For almost a week, weather models had been hinting at a large severe weather outbreak. A very powerful fall storm system was forecast to take shape across the upper Midwest bringing snow, rain, severe weather and cool temperatures. Up until Friday morning models consistently placed this low just SW of the viewing area in central Iowa as described in a previous blog post.

What actually occurred is the low pressure set up in central Nebraska.

Just to the northeast of the low, a tornado outbreak occurred with 18 reported tornadoes including an EF 4 in Wayne, NE (winds over 166 mph). Photo courtesy: @SimonStormRider

The reason your Storm Tracker 6 Weather Team had been talking about the possibility for severe weather so frequently in the 5 days before Friday should be obvious by now. If the low had set up like early models had predicted, a tornado outbreak very well could have impacted most of southeast Minnesota and north central Iowa.

We dodged a bullet, and even though hail and especially flash flooding moved through most of the viewing area with water rescues needed, we should consider ourselves lucky. The thoughts and prayers of the Storm Tracker 6 Weather Team are with those recovering from the tragedy in Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota.