Possible upsets to watch: North Dakota St and Stephen F. Austin

Posted at: 03/20/2014 8:26 AM
By: J.P. Murrieta, KOB Eyewitness Sports 4

I know what you’re thinking, “How can I get an edge in my office pool?”  Here’s some info I’ve compiled over the years that may help.  Keep in mind, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Let’s start with the simplest rule.  Don’t pick a #16 seed to beat a #1 seed.  It’s never happened.  No. 1 seeds are 100-0.  In fact, their average margin of victory is more than 25 points.  In fact, just pencil in the #1 seeds to get to the Sweet 16.  #1 seeds are 96-12 to advance past round 2

Pick a #1 seed to win it all (a #1 seed won it all 11 of the last 15 years)

            At least one #1 seed made it to the Final 4 every year but two (not in ’06 or ‘11)

            Don’t pick more than two #1 seeds to make it to the Final Four (only 4 times have three #1 seeds made it)

Pick a Big 12 team to lose in the first round (it’s happened in 26 of the last 29 years)

 Pick a team seeded 13th or worse to beat a team seeded one through four (at least one has pulled off an upset in 29 of the last 33 years)

 Pick one team seeded 12th to advance (a #12 seed advanced past the first round 26 of the last 29 years)

            A double digit seed made it to the Sweet 16 in 17 of the last 18 years (not in ’07)

No #16 seed has ever won a game

A team seeded sixth or worse reached the Elite Eight in 24 of the last 29 years

 A #2 seed has been upset before the Sweet 16 in 15 of the last 17 years (not ’09)

 #9 seeds have beaten #8 seeds more times than they’ve lost (60-56)

 #11 seeds don’t win often against #6 seeds (38-74).. however three #11 seeds won in ’11, two #11 seeds won in ’12, one in ‘13

 #13 seed rarely wins (25-91) but a #13 has won a game in 13 of the last 16 years (not ’09)

*only 59 of the 116 #3 seeds won their first two games (they all did in ’08 & ‘09)

 Don’t pick a #5 seed to get to the Elite Eight!!

*#5 seeds in the Sweet 16 are 8-34.. they’re usually facing a #1 seed (2 got there in ’10)

#15 seed upset hardly ever happens (7-109).. however it happened TWICE in ’12, once in ‘13

Pick at least one ACC team to reach a regional semifinal and at least one to reach the Final Four (at least one ACC team has reached the Final Four in 20 of the last 25 years and 24 of the last 32.. not in ’06, ’07, ’11 ,’12 or ‘13)

Kansas is 21-2 in 1st round games

Don’t go nuts picking too many first/second round upsets.  If you pick an upset in the first round, don’t pick them to win again.  It’s rare a team that wasn’t expected to win their first game gets hot and wins two.  Usually the team is too excited from the first win and they suffer a letdown.