SurveyUSA/KSTP Poll: Minn. 6th Congressional District

Updated: 10/15/2012 5:22 PM KSTP.com By: Michelle Knoll

In an election today for the U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, high-profile incumbent Republican congresswoman Michele Bachmann is re-elected, defeating DFL challenger Jim Graves 50% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Bachmann's lead comes entirely from men. Graves leads by 1 point among women. Bachmann leads by 18 points among men. Bachmann holds 86% of the Republican base. Graves holds 85% of the DFL base. Independents split. Bachmann holds 81% of the conservative vote. Graves holds 83% of the liberal vote. Moderates break 58% to 31% to Graves. Bachmann leads among lower-income, middle-income and upper-income voters. Graves and Bachmann tie in union households. Bachmann leads by 12 points in non-union households.

Bachmann has a Net Zero Favorability Rating: the same number of voters have a favorable opinion of her (40%) as have an unfavorable opinion of her (40%). Graves has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating: 28% have a favorable opinion of him compared to 27% who have a negative opinion.

By 45% to 36%, voters say Bachmann will do more to bring jobs to the district.
By 46% to 39%, voters say they agree more with Bachmann on social issues.
By 47% to 35%, voters say they agree with Bachmann more on issues of Medicare and Social Security.

Republican Mitt Romney carries the district 53% to 36% in an election for President today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District 10/09/12 through 11/11/12, using Registration Based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 598 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell-phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the calls, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent's cooperation, read the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed.
 

1   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Michele Bachmann? Or DFL Candidate Jim Graves?  

50% Michele Bachmann (R)
41% Jim Graves (DFL)
9% Undecided

2   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Is your opinion of Michele Bachmann ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?  

40% Favorable
40% Unfavorable
15% Neutral
5% No Opinion

3   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Is your opinion of Jim Graves ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?  

28% Favorable
27% Unfavorable
28% Neutral
17% No Opinion

4   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who will do more to bring jobs to the district?  

45% Michele Bachmann (R)
36% Jim Graves (DFL)
19% Not Sure

5   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who do you agree with more on social issues?  

46% Michele Bachmann (R)
39% Jim Graves (DFL)
15% Not Sure

6   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who do you agree with more on issues like Medicare and Social Security?  

47% Michele Bachmann (R)
35% Jim Graves (DFL)
17% Not Sure

7   Asked of 598 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?  

53% Mitt Romney (R)
36% Barack Obama (D)
5% Other
5% Undecided

x   Complete Interactive Crosstabs
i   Statement of Methodology
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