SurveyUSA Poll Results Oct. 15

Updated: 10/18/2012 3:09 PM KSTP.com By: Jennie Olson

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19873

In an election for President of the United States, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP.

Obama's 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota's constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for "Yes," 46% for "No," and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

* 5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to "No."

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode.

Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

1    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

40%  Mitt Romney (R)
50%  Barack Obama (D)
4%    Other
6%    Undecided

2    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

30%  Kurt Bills (R)
58%  Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
5%    Other
7%    Undecided

3    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

29%  Health Care
30%  Job Creation
14%  Taxes
4%    Gas Prices
4%    War On Terrorism
7%    Education
10%  Something Else
3%    Not Sure

4    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47%  Yes
46%  No
7%    Undecided

5    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"

53%  Yes
40%  No
7%    Undecided

6    Asked of 550 likely voters
      Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

36%  Republican
45%  DFL
8%    Independence Party
3%    Other
9%    Undecided

Complete Interactive Crosstabs

Statement of Methodology

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