Marriage Amendment Race Very Close; Voter ID Poised to Pass

Updated: 10/31/2012 8:56 PM KSTP.com By: Tom Hauser

The fate of two controversial constitutional amendments will be decided in Tuesday's election.

According to an exclusive new poll for KSTP-TV by SurveyUSA, the marriage amendment could be the closest statewide race in Minnesota.  In a poll conducted Oct. 26-28, 48% of respondents say they'll vote "yes" on a new constitutional amendment that would define marriage as the union only of one man and one woman. That's up one point from two weeks ago.  Another 47% say they'll vote "no," also up one point.  The number of undecided voters went from 7 percent to 5 percent.  "Neither side an afford to be confident and the outcome could be decided by just a few thousand voters on election night," according to Carleton College Political Science Professor Steven Schier.  

As for the voter ID amendment, it's not nearly as close.  According to our new poll, 55% say they'll vote "yes" on mandating photo ID's at polling places.  That's up two points from our poll two weeks ago.  Another 40% say they'll vote "no," the same as two weeks ago, and five percent are still undecided.  Schier says it's very likely the voter ID amendment will pass. "None of the polls that have been released by newspapers or television stations that have been released to the public have shown that voter ID has less than 50 percent support," he says.  

Both amendments need at least 50 percent to be added to the constitution.

See the poll results and complete interactive crosstabs here.