KSTP/Survey USA Poll: Nolan and Cravaack Nose-to-Nose at the Wire

Updated: 11/04/2012 10:41 PM KSTP.com By: Michelle Knoll

In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Nolan and Cravaack Nose-to-Nose at the Wire: 48 hours till votes are counted in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, a whisker separates DFL candidate Rick Nolan and Republican Chip Cravaack, with a possible advantage to Nolan, who for the 2nd SurveyUSA poll in a row, leads, but within the survey's possible sources of error. It's Nolan 47%, Cravaack 45%, with 8% of voters undecided heading into the campaign's final day. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, Cravaack is flat, Nolan is up 1 point. Though the high-level results have not changed much, Nolan has higher "unfavorable" numbers than he had 1 month ago. Nolan is newly seen as stronger on mining issues. Nolan is newly seen as better able to bring jobs to the 8th district. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. 585 likely voters were interviewed 11/01/12 through 11/03/12.  



1   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Chip Cravaack? Or DFL Candidate Rick Nolan?  

45% Chip Cravaack (R)
47% Rick Nolan (DFL)
8% Undecided

2   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Is your opinion of Chip Cravaack ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?  

39% Favorable
35% Unfavorable
18% Neutral
8% No Opinion

3   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Is your opinion of Rick Nolan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?  

35% Favorable
33% Unfavorable
22% Neutral
10% No Opinion

4   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who is stronger on mining issues?  

34% Chip Cravaack (R)
37% Rick Nolan (DFL)
29% Not Sure

5   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who will do more to protect Medicare?  

35% Chip Cravaack (R)
45% Rick Nolan (DFL)
20% Not Sure

6   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Who will do more to bring jobs to the district?  

40% Chip Cravaack (R)
43% Rick Nolan (DFL)
17% Not Sure

7   Asked of 585 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?  

44% Mitt Romney (R)
49% Barack Obama (D)
4% Other
3% Undecided

x   Complete Interactive Crosstabs
i   Statement of Methodology
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